Top Fantasy Football Sleepers: Quarterback
One of the most important rules when drafting quarterbacks is to never be the chump who drafts QB1. The quarterback position is the deepest in all of fantasy. With the NFL’s shift to spread and air raid offenses, it isn’t hard to find a quarterback capable of putting up big stats.
I understand the temptation to take someone like a Pat Mahomes with an early round pick. It’s an easy 25+ points a game and Mahomes was one of the most common quarterbacks on fantasy championship teams last year per ESPN. But the thing is, anyone who took Mahomes last season benefited from the fact he went after a lot of other, non-MVP quarterbacks. He was the best QB in fantasy, but he was also a huge sleeper as a second year player starting for the first time in his career.
There are a lot of QBs I like late in the draft this year. I’m not sure if they’ll give you the same type of production as Mahomes, but here are some QBs who should out produce the guys drafted ahead of them:
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected: 11th-12th round
Jameis Winston is one of the most frustrating quarterbacks in all of football. He’s a one step forward, two steps back kind of guy. He’ll make some of the most beautiful passes and then follow them up with boneheaded plays and turnovers, lots of turnovers. Winston has been a relatively successful fantasy QB to this point, but if only he could tone down his turnovers.
Enter: Bruce Ariens. The former Coach of the Year was arguably the best pickup of the entire season. He famously turned Carson Palmer from a career journey man to an MVP candidate. His impact on the offensive side of the ball cannot be understated. If Ariens can have the same type of success he had with quarterbacks like Palmer, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger, then Winston could be on course for a top-five QB season.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Projected: 13th-14th round
QB rushing yards are incredibly valuable in fantasy and Lamar Jackson could be on pace for a lot of them. After taking over as the Ravens’ starting QB half way through last season, Jackson rushed for 65+ yards six time over the last sever weeks of the season. He averaged 19 fantasy points per game after the bye week. With a full offseason to prepare as the starter, Jackson could take a huge step in his second season.
Through the first week of training camp, Jackson looks much improved. He’s bulked up and has been making impressive passes, like this:
Alright rookie 🔥@Lj_era8 ➡️ @MBoykin814 pic.twitter.com/2LURZFnyYY
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) July 27, 2019
And this:
Lamar Jackson lays one in perfectly to Willie Snead deep downfield pic.twitter.com/aKmkPxtPpN
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) July 28, 2019
John Harbaugh has already said, “bet the over” on how many times Jackson could be running the ball this season, if he has the arm to go with his legs – like he did in college – he could set fantasy records.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Projected: 14th-15th round
No one ever said you had to be a good quarterback to be a good fantasy quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky benefits from being in one of the NFL’s most creative offenses. Head coach Matt Nagy is brilliant when it comes to finding ways to move the football and Trubisky’s dual-threat ability works well in his offense. He finished last season averaging 23 fantasy points per game and between weeks four and eleven – prior to missing two games with a shoulder injury – Trubisky was averaging 30.4 points per game.
Trubisky has shown the ability to preform well in Nagy offense and he should continue to improve going into his second season with the coach. If he can cut back on his turnovers, Trubisky could easily finish the season as a top-ten QB.
Sam Darnold, New York Jets
Projected: 15th-16th round
According to Pro Football Focus, Sam Darnold was the number one quarterback in football over the last four weeks of last season. He posted two of his biggest fantasy outings over that stretch and saved his rookie season from being a complete disaster. This season, he has a new, offensive minded head coach, new weapons in Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell which should lead to improved performance.
Darnold has been impressive in training camp and the pedigree to be an elite quarterback, the only question is if he can make the type of year two jump other elite quarterbacks have. Darnold’s upside is clear and, considering he’s projected to basically go undrafted, he’s a major sleeper.
