The Process of ‘Load Management’
If you’re reading this, you obviously follow the NBA. And thusly, you are aware of the term ‘load management.’ Now to a juvenile mind, like my own, this is an inherently funny term. It would fit seamlessly into dialogue from the American Pie-esque movies from the late 90’s and early 2000’s. I can imagine Stiffler saying something along the lines of, “I’ll be majoring in load management at college next year” while aggressively thrusting his hips (dated reference, I know).
For our purposes, ‘load management’ means sitting players who aren’t technically injured for them to rest any nagging aches and pains or the ensure they don’t get injured by playing too much. This strategy has been employed over the years by many teams to the annoyance of fans (and the NBA, who infamously fined the Spurs $250,000 for resting their four best players in a nationally televised game against the Heat in 2015).
This all changed when the Raptors won the Finals. Sure, fans will get angry when stars take a seat in their only visit to that particular arena (looking at you Cleveland, Charlotte, and Phoenix), but the logic of ‘load management’ can’t be refuted after what Kawhi Leonard did in this year’s playoffs after strategically playing only 60 games in the regular season.
This brings us to our beloved Joel Embiid. Last season, Joel started on a tear, but limped to the finish. He played 39 of the first 41 games, but only 25 of the final 41. Conversely, Kawhi played 32 games in the first half of the season and 28 in the second half. This mattered greatly in the playoffs. Due to his heavy load early on (and his weight), Embiid’s back started acting up come February. He was only able to play 30 minutes per game when his team needed him the most in the playoffs. Leonard, on the other hand, played all 24 games during Toronto’s championship run while averaging 39:08 minutes per game.
Joel Embiid 2018-19
39 of 41 – 33:41 MPG
25 of 41 – 33:37 MPG
Playoffs
11 of 12 – 30:24 MPG
Kawhi Leonard 2018-19
32 of 41 – 34:51 MPG
28 of 41 – 33:01 MPG
Playoffs
24 of 24 – 39:08 MPG
I get that this isn’t an apples to apples comparison since Kawhi is a wing player and Joel is a center, but what the Raptors did last season is still a nice guideline for how the Sixers can rest Embiid (and probably Al Horford) in order to maximize their output when it matters most.
Schedule Breakdown
If you haven’t checked it out yet, Jimmy Williamson wrote a really nice, big picture piece about the 2019-2020 schedule that ran on The Phifth Quarter on Tuesday. The goal should be for Embiid to play somewhere between 60-65 games this season, preferably staggering them throughout as opposed to him missing chunks at a time due to injury.
Obviously, barring a major catastrophe in training camp, the Sixers will be at full strength to open the season on ESPN against Boston on October 23. The team has 24 national TV games currently scheduled (not counting NBATV or games that could be flexed later in the season). I would venture a guess that the league has spoken privately with teams regarding resting players who aren’t hurt for these games, so let’s go with the assumption that Joel will play all these games barring injury.
The next set of games are games where Embiid will want to play to go against a certain player or team due to prior issues or pettiness. His goal is to prove to the world what we in Philadelphia already know – that he is the best big man in the league. Also, I know that the Knicks aren’t good, but players love going to Madison Square Garden. I also can’t see him sitting out games against Indiana due to potential playoff implications.
That leaves a list of 37 games for him to take a night off. The 41st game of the season is on January 13 in Indiana, so we’ll use that game and look for 10ish game before and after for Joel to take a good old DNP-Coach’s Decision.
The highlighted games below are the ones I believe Joel should sit during the upcoming season to ensure he’s ready come May and June. I do think it is necessary for players to string together games to get into a rhythm, but the most games that Leonard played consecutively last season was nine, prior to the playoffs where he played 24. With my current projection, Embiid’s longest stretches will both be eight games (January 13–28 and March 1–18).
Obviously, this is not an exact science. I’m sure the team has already pinpointed on the schedule which games they will have a full roster and when they won’t. This will all go to the wayside if there is a major injury, but those can’t be predicted, so there is no use in worrying about it now.
Let us know what you think. Stay tuned.
