Sixers’ Defense: Taking the Next Step
The Sixers were undoubtedly one of the best defensive teams in the NBA last season. According to Basketball Reference, the Sixers had the fourth best defensive rating, which estimates the points a team allows per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of schedule, of the thirty NBA teams last season.
Much of this can be attributed to the contributions of All-NBA First Defensive Team wing Robert Covington and Defensive Player of the Year Runner-Up Joel Embiid, but the Sixers’ coaching staff and front office have to look deeper into the film and the numbers to determine what made the team’s defense so solid last year, and to pinpoint how the team can defend even better in the 2018-19 season.
Defense is notoriously difficult to quantify and analyze, but it is, after all, half of basketball. Historically, we’ve looked at box score stats, particularly blocks and steals, to consider a player’s defensive abilities. However, these stats hardly scratch the surface of a player’s defensive contributions. They tell us little about how a basketball player comprehensively impacts the game on the defensive end.
Consequentially, analysts have looked towards more advanced stats such as ESPN’s Real Defensive Plus-Minus (RDPM) to quantify a player’s on-court defensive performance. RDPM’s basis comes from Box Plus-Minus (BPM), which is the average score differential when a player is on the court. Real Plus-Minus (RPM) controls/adjusts BPM for the BPM of the players he shares the court with and the BPM of the players he plays against. RPM can be broken up into Offensive Real Plus-Minus (ORPM) and Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM), which added together equals the RPM. But while we have plenty of different stats to assess a player’s offensive contribution, DRPM is probably the best statistic we have to quantify a player’s overall defensive contribution.
The 2017-18 Sixers had some of the best players at their position as far as DRPM goes. Joel Embiid had the fifth best DPRM of all centers in the league last year playing at least half of their team’s games and playing at least 20 minutes per game. He’s clearly one of the best rim protectors in the league, and this is one of the areas where his game really improved last season. He’s got incredible defensive instincts, and they’re only improving the more he plays. Interestingly, his blocks average decreased somewhat significantly this past year, but this can be explained by a correlated increase in rebounds. Joel is learning not to over-commit to blocks, which keeps him in better position to defend and to grab rebounds, all while keeping out of foul trouble.
Amir Johnson had the 10th best DRPM of all centers in the league last year, which is tremendously valuable for a bench center. The Sixers should have no troubles protecting the rim this year, which is huge considering the importance of help defense in today’s game.
Among players who played at least half of their teams games and played at least 20 minutes per game, 1st Team All-Defense player Robert Covington had the best DRPM last season of all wing players in the entire league. He had the second best DRPM among players with those qualifications among all players, second only to Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
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Covington has built a reputation as one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA over the past few seasons, and is one of the premier three-and-D role players in the game. Although not as quick on his feet as most elite perimeter defenders, Covington does it with his size, length, instincts, and quick hands. At 6’9, Cov can switch on to players 1-4, which is incredibly sought after in today’s NBA.
He uses his quick hands to disrupt passing lanes with deflections and grabs his fair share of steals. He didn’t look great on either end of the floor against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinal, and the defense is probably a bigger concern. Shooters get cold, and there’s no reason to think he’ll stay cold the next time the Sixers face the Celtics on a big stage. But the Sixers will rely on Covington to shut down one of the Celtics’ athletic wings, and Covington needs to figure out how he can make that happen next time around.
Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons had the seventh best DRPM of all point guards last season playing 42 games/20 mins last year, which was a remarkably pleasant surprise to the Sixers. Simmons adapted remarkably well to defending the position in his rookie season, and at 6’10, he can switch 1-4, possibly even 1-5 for the Sixers on defense. If Simmons takes a few strides forward in his post defense, he could be one of the best all-around defenders in the league, and will be the guy the Sixers call on to shut the opposing team’s best player every game.
But outside of Embiid, Covington, and Simmons in the starting lineup, and Amir Johnson off the bench, the Sixers didn’t have many other serious defensive contributors.
JJ Redick was a horrendous 84th out of 102 shooting guards in the league last year in DRPM, and was a huge reason why opposing two-guards regularly torched the Sixers last year. Similarly, Dario Saric was 71st of 94 power forwards in DRPM last season. Both of these guys stay on the floor because of their offensive firepower, and Saric has mentioned lateral quickness was a priority for him in the offseason in order to improve his perimeter defense. But ideally, the Sixers would be able to bring one of these guys off the bench as a sixth man, allowing him to defend an easier assignment while running the second unit offense.
And as last year’s playoff exit showed, the Sixers desperately need help defending the perimeter. Hopefully, the Sixers have addressed this in the past offseason.
In the short-term, Wilson Chandler provides a balanced blend of size, athleticism, and experience as a wing defender off the bench. Zhaire Smith projects to be an absolute stud on defense with his off-the-charts athleticism, despite being pretty undersized for a wing. He may end up being the guy the Sixers call on to defend the many dynamic point guards in today’s league. But Zhaire is injured until December or so, and will spend the back half of the year learning the NBA game.
Hopefully, the Sixers will be able to rely on Markelle Fultz to give them something on the defensive end. At 6’5 with a long wingspan, Markelle projects to be a very solid wing defender. He looked like he can compete defensively in the preseason, and his defensive versatility/ability has got to be a huge reason Brett Brown seems desperate to break Markelle into the starting lineup. If Markelle can space the floor well enough to share minutes with Ben Simmons, he may be the Sixers’ solution to their need for perimeter defense sooner rather than later, along with Chandler off the bench.
Lastly, there are a few team statistics the Sixers have to be looking at from a year ago. The Sixers were 16th in the league, just about average, at three point attempts allowed last year. This could be an area of improvement the Sixers target next year, but this may simply be a result of the Sixers’ stellar interior defense. Teams can’t get to the rim, so they take three pointers whenever they can. However, when teams do shoot threes against the Sixers, they made them at the 2nd lowest rate in the league. Only the Celtics allowed three pointers at a lower percentage last season. Despite lacking some depth on the perimeter on defense, having Joel Embiid underneath allows perimeter defenders to pressure shooters, knowing Embiid will be there to protect the rim if they get beat overpressuring the three.
Furthermore, the Sixers gave up the second fewest 0-3 foot shots as a percentage of opponents’ field goals last year. While they defended these shots right around the league average, they rarely allowed opponents to get these shots off. Again, Embiid’s rim protection likely scares opponents into shooting mid range shots, which is exactly what modern NBA defense is all about. You always want to contest as many shots as possible to lower opponents’ shooting efficiency, but preventing and defending layups, dunks, and three-point looks are the best way to increase defensive efficiency, and that’s exactly why the Sixers had such a great defense last year.
Luckily, the areas the Sixers can improve in on the defensive end are very fixable. The Sixers’ defense fouled their opponents a ton last year, and finished the season giving up the second most free-throws in the league last year per 100 possessions. This has to be an area the Sixers look to improve on next season, as giving away free throws means giving away opportunities for free points. This is certainly a part of learning the NBA game for the young 76ers, who need to find the line between adequately contesting shots and committing fouls as much as possible.
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE
The Sixers’ carelessness on the offensive end of the floor did not help the defense. The Sixers’ led the league in turnovers committed per 100 possessions last year, again, as young teams, especially with rookie point guards and ball dominant centers who are new to the game, often do. This puts more pressure on the defense by increasing the number of defensive possessions a team faces, both tiring out the defense and giving the opposition more opportunities to score. And it’s no secret that scoring off of turnovers is one of the easiest ways to rack up points, as turnovers often lead to transition attacks with defenses recovering to get back in position. This leads to easy layups, open three-point looks, and free-throw attempts.
The good news on these fronts is that turnovers and fouls are part of being a young team, and this Sixers’ young core is a year older. Simmons and Embiid should only decrease their turnover numbers, from 3.5 and 3.7 a year ago, respectively.
If this Sixers team finds some breakout play on perimeter defense from players like Markelle Fultz, Landry Shamet, and eventually Zhaire Smith, and make progress as expected regarding turnovers and fouls, they’ll be a top 3, maybe even the #1 defense in the NBA this season. And that just may be the best way for these Sixers to counter the modern, offense-heavy NBA.
