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Didn’t love any of the NBA futures bets I proposed? Not to worry, today we will dive deep into DraftKings Sportsbook’s odds for NBA MVP after having a month to survey the field and look at our options. This time, I am not as worried about coming off as biased, because my bias is warranted due to our star players’ insane play throughout our first 15 games. First, let’s cover some ground rules.
The NBA MVP race is super difficult to bet on, because of a few reasons.
- The award is voted on by the media, and some media members don’t take their vote as seriously as they should. Many members of the media, due to the environment they work in and are surrounded with on a daily basis, often vote with the narrative, rather than by the name “Most Valuable Player”.
- The media’s definition of “valuable” seems to change almost every year. I grew up with the understanding the Most Valuable Player was the player who mattered the most to their team’s success. Sometimes, the award goes to the best player on the best team. Sometimes, the award goes to the clear-cut best player in the league that season. Sometimes, the award goes to whoever can average a triple-double in a season (Sorry Russ, but I hated that then and I stand by it).
- You never know who is going to get injured, or whose teammates might get injured, leaving their team shorthanded and unable to reach the threshold most teams need to reach to allow their best player to qualify as a real MVP candidate: The undisputed best player on a top 2 seed in their respective conference. Besides Russ in 17, the last time the MVP was not on a top 2 seed, was in 1987-88, when Jordan won his first and the Bulls were the 3 seed in the East. He averaged 35.0 ppg, 3.2 spg and was also the DPOY, I’d say that one was warranted. What this means is the MVP, barring some historic run which it does not look like will happen, has to be the best player on one of the top 2 seeds in either conference.
So, now that we have covered the rules, let’s look at the current league standings/candidates for MVP based on what we know:
In the West, the top two seeds are the Lakers and the Clippers, respectively. In the East, we have the Sixers (!!!!) and the Celtics, respectively. Meaning our current MVP candidates if the season ended today are the following players: LeBron James at +600, Paul George/Kawhi at +8000, Embiid at +1000, and Jayson Tatum at +8000. Immediately I’m throwing out the players at +8000, Kawhi and PG split the best-player role right down the middle for the Clippers, at least throughout the regular season, and Tatum just is not there yet. That being said, I believe if COVID allows it, the Sixers can finish a top 2 seed.
We cannot forget we are still undefeated with our starting 5. As for the rest of the East catching us, the Nets have so many kinks to work out, he Bucks are learning how to mesh with their new guys, and the Heat and Raptors look like a shell of their former selves. I love Embiid for MVP at +1000. You could stop reading here, head to DraftKings to place your bet and I would not blame you. Those are great odds for the clear-cut best player on a top 2 team, who also has never won it before (which voters seem to love). I am a believer in voter fatigue, so unless he averages 35/14 a game, I don’t think Giannis can win it again this year. Our big man is averaging 26.4 ppg- good enough for 9th best in the league, 11.3 rebounds- 8th best in the league, and seems to love the thought of winning his first MVP and granting his team home court advantage for the majority of the playoffs. The only person really standing in Embiid’s way right now, is King James. Many people thought he was going to take a back seat in year 18, at age 36, with mileage almost unprecedented as he sits at almost 50,000 minutes played. Good enough for 8th best in league history.
Lebron’s brilliance at this age can not be understated, and for Embiid- I fear that Lebron may have the better narrative if he keeps this up. He is 36, he has not won it in over 7 years, and he is the best player on clearly the best team in the league. Davis is the one taking a backseat, meanwhile Lebron is flourishing and only playing 31 minutes a night! Pelinka may have preserved another year for Lebron’s career by adding the depth he did for this Lakers team. Seriously, the guy is averaging 26.9 ppg/8.4 assists/8.9 rebounds per 36 minutes on .53/.396/.725 shooting splits? That is insane, and the media will not deny the opportunity to remind us how insane it is especially if he stays healthy and stays this consistent or better the rest of the season, it is LeBron’s race to lose.
This is the bottom line. Lebron is the conservative and wise choice right now, and Embiid is the smart dark horse pick right now, for any gambler- not just Sixers fans. Meaning for Sixers fans, I would have a hard time arguing against hammering Embiid’s odds for MVP. Quickly I’ll go over the other contenders.
- Luka Doncic +450: Luka was the preseason favorite, and is still the favorite, meaning Vegas expects the Mav’s to pick up the pace in the win column after a slow start to the season. Granted with KP back they just might, but after watching some games it has seemed to me that Luka has taken the Shaq approach and is playing his way into shape this year, which does not bode well for his MVP run.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +600: Voter fatigue. Next.
- Kevin Durant +600: This one I could see. He is clearly the best player on his team, but my original question was how many points will he average with Harden and Kyrie next to him? So far, it is 36.67 a game, but I doubt that keeps up. He does have the narrative going for him, coming off a torn achilles- an injury we have never seen a player fully recover from, and if the Nets can be a top 2 seed and maybe go on an attention grabbing run at some point, I could totally see KD winning. I just think it will be hard with Harden carrying the load some nights and Kyrie on top of that. But I would not count KD out yet, he is another solid pick.
- Steph Curry +1000: Love Steph and love what he is doing this year, but I don’t think the team will be good enough to warrant voting for him.
- Nikola Jokic +1000: I can’t figure out what is going on with Denver. Jamal Murray was unstoppable in the bubble, but now we are back to the inconsistent Jamal Murray we all knew. Right now, with the Clippers and the rise of the Jazz, I don’t think the Nuggets do better than a 4 seed- which won’t be enough for Jokic to get the votes he’d need.
- Damian Lillard +2000: I loved this before the season, but CJ is hurt now as well as Nurkic and I can’t imagine them being a top 3 seed in the West. If they were, and Dame averaged 40 or something to get them there, I could see it, but I doubt that happens.
- Anthony Davis +2500: LeBron would win it before him.
- Tobias Harris +50000: Sorry, I had to.
Those are all the true contenders. I would be shocked if it were anyone outside that group. It is a fun year for MVP, because I definitely think it won’t be Giannis again and could be Embiid, LeBron, or another player who makes a run at it, so hopefully this guide/deep dive helps you decide where to put your money if you wanna try and predict who gets the award. Thanks for reading and as always, bet responsibly.
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